The Future of Google

Sundar Pichai, in his post-I/O discussion with Nilay Patel, framed the surge in AI products not as an existential threat to the web, but as the dawn of its “new era.” Confronted with the critical question of what happens when AI agents dominate browsing, Pichai projected an evolution rather than an obsolescence.

• Google Confident in AI: “Research becomes reality” with multimodal AI (Gemini) powering new products like “AI Mode” in Search.
• AI Mode & Web Traffic: Claims AI Mode sends more traffic to a wider range of web sources, despite publisher anger; notes 45% growth in crawled web pages.
• AR Glasses Imminent: Developer AR glasses coming “this year,” Pichai expects to wear them by next year.
• Regulation & Politics: Downplays Chrome divestiture concerns; asserts Google won’t alter search/AI results due to political pressure.
• Next Big Thing: Robotics is identified as the next major platform shift after the current AI wave.

Google’s AI Strategy & Confidence:

• Google’s current confidence stems from the “depth and breadth of the AI frontier we are pushing” and making “research becomes reality.”
• Mentioned pushing frontiers on “text diffusion models” and “world models.”
• The current “new phase of the platform shift” in AI is about the platform itself being “capable of creating and self-improving” and unleashing creative power (e.g., “vibe coding”) to a wider audience.
• AI is seen as a “horizontal piece of technology” impacting Search, YouTube, Cloud, Android XR, Play, Waymo, Isomorphic, justifying broad investment.
• Monetization includes AI subscription plans: “people will be willing to pay for it. We are introducing subscription plans.”
• Google increased investment in Waymo three years ago despite negative public sentiment due to belief in the underlying technology.

Android XR & AR Glasses:

• Partnerships: Samsung (goggles), Gentle Monster & Warby Parker (glasses).
• Developer versions of AR glasses are expected “this year” and will be “pretty close to what people will eventually see as final products.”
• Pichai expects to be wearing such glasses by next year’s interview.
• Predicts “millions of people” might be trying AR glasses next year, but not yet as mainstream as smartphones.
• Acknowledges phones/laptops might become “legacy” but it “is gonna take some time.”

AI’s Impact on the Web & Search:

• Web Content Volume: The number of webpages Google crawls has “gone up by 45% in the last two years alone,” not solely attributable to AI-generated content.
• AI & Content Formats: AI will make it “zero friction to move from one format to another” due to natively multimodal models (e.g., NotebookLM audio overviews).
• AI Overviews/Mode & Traffic:
  • Committed to AI Mode having sources and sending traffic to the web.
  • Claims the “breadth of where we are sending people to is increasing” and to a “wider range of sources, publishers.”
  • Asserts it’s “higher quality referral traffic too.”
  • Overall query growth in Search is occurring, and this growth “compounds over time” even with AI Overviews.
• Safari Search Data: Disputes reports of a drop in Google Search from Safari, stating, “everything we see tells us we are seeing query growth including across Apple’s devices and platforms.”
• Pichai doesn’t fully agree the web as a media platform is at an all-time low, citing future ease of web development.

Agents & The Future Web:

• Pichai agrees with the idea that “the web is a series of databases” and agents might interact with this layer more directly.
• Monetization for Agent Interactions: Suggests models like “consumers could pay a subscription for agents and the agents could rev share back” to services like Uber/DoorDash.
• Expects agent adoption to be “faster in enterprises than consumer” markets.

Regulation & External Pressures:

• Chrome Divestiture: Downplays this possibility, emphasizing Chrome’s open-source contributions.
• Political Influence on Search/AI:
  • “No person Google can influence the ranking algorithm” for traditional Search.
  • States “No” to adjusting AI Mode responses due to political pressure, calling ranking “sacrosanct.”
• Content Authoritativeness: Google does not “individually evaluate the authoritativeness of like a page”; it relies on algorithmic signals (like PageRank, but far more complex). This approach won’t change.

Future of AI:

• The most profound aspect of AI is “self-improving technology.”
• Key future opportunities: drug discovery, new disease treatments, democratized programming (“everyone can program”).
• Next Big Platform Shift after current AI wave: “When this translates into the physical world through robotics… that aha moment of robotics.” Views Waymo as a current, specialized robot.