A claim evolves through deterministic rules applied to the posterior mean and total test count, progressing from untested through testing, weak, likely, or disproven, and ultimately reaching proven when it achieves a win rate of at least 70% across 6 or more rounds.
stateDiagram-v2
[*] --> Untested
Untested --> Testing: Initial Evaluation
Testing --> Testing: Inconclusive (n < 4)
Testing --> Weak: Mean <= 0.45, n >= 4
Testing --> Likely: Mean >= 0.55, n >= 4
Weak --> Disproven: Mean <= 0.30, n >= 5
Likely --> Proven: Mean >= 0.70, n >= 6
Weak --> Testing: Win rate improves
Likely --> Testing: Win rate drops
Disproven --> [*]
Proven --> [*]