Status Test Threshold Posterior Mean Description
untested \(n = 0\) N/A Freshly seeded claim with no empirical test rounds.
testing \(1 \le n < 4\) (or unaligned mean) Any Active hypothesis accumulating trial observations.
likely \(n \ge 4\) \(\mu \ge 0.55\) Trending positive but below the proven threshold.
weak \(n \ge 4\) \(\mu \le 0.45\) Trending negative but below the disproven threshold.
proven \(n \ge 6\) \(\mu \ge 0.70\) Confirmed effective rank-lifting content strategy.
disproven \(n \ge 5\) \(\mu \le 0.30\) Confirmed ineffective or harmful content strategy.